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My Bestsellers Clerk
 Post subject: Box Office Predictions ?
     
         
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Missing since: 03 Jan 2011
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I'm not sure if this kind of topic is allowed but what do people consider the likely box office outcome of the movie.

I find it hard to see it reaching the $100 million mark especially looking at how flimsy some of the promotion seems to be.

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Just Passing Through
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?
     
         
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Missing since: 22 Jun 2010
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I think they're aiming the film at the international market (my country, Brazil, included), since the 3D appeal in horror movies tends to be more success is more focused at those countries.

Take for an example the last two RE films, Final Destination and The Darkest Hour)... since SH is not as big as RE or FD, it would be more reasonable to compare it to The Darkest Hour, wich made 64 million worldwide on a 30 million budget. My guess is that SH has it's built in fanbase, and many occasional moviegoers that enjoyed the first film... adding the fact that it will be released around Halloween, at least in the US, it gives the film a boost (even though it will be face to face to Paranormal Activity 4), and the 3D will atract people from the overseas market.

In the end, after these considerations and some thought, I think the movie will end up on making 35 million to 40 million on the domestic, plus another 40 million (or maybe 50 million) overseas. In the best prospects, I think the film can reach 100 million worldwide or close to that, but I guess it's more reasonable to think that it will make an overall 70~85 million, and that's very good in my opinion.

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Just Passing Through
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?

Missing since: 05 Aug 2012
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arthurdepr wrote:
In the end, after these considerations and some thought, I think the movie will end up on making 35 million to 40 million on the domestic, plus another 40 million (or maybe 50 million) overseas. In the best prospects, I think the film can reach 100 million worldwide or close to that, but I guess it's more reasonable to think that it will make an overall 70~85 million, and that's very good in my opinion.

I think that's a reasonable estimate.
The first movie made around 20 million on opening week in the US around April 2006, so it'll probably do a little better when released around Halloween with much of the crowd flocking in who are just in the mood for "something horror".
The worldwide gross of the first movie was pretty big, but I suppose it'll lose some viewers due to stuff like the ambiguous reputation of the first movie or the simple fact that it's still a sequel. So I suppose it won't reach the almost 100 million of overall gross, maybe really sink in somewhere at 70, which is okay considering the budget will probably be lower than the first one with a given estimate of 50 million.

I think the biggest killer could actually be the mixed reviews from the first movie and the very peculiar advertising for this one, which might make it end up forgotten at the wayside.


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Historical Society Historian
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?

Missing since: 04 Mar 2007
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100+ mil worldwide, same as the first film, if it's good, I'd guess it'd make more money than the first film, and on a smaller budget. Look forward to a third film announcement coming sooner in that case.


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 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?
     
         
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Missing since: 21 Jul 2003
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Sinister and Paranormal Activity 4 will steal most of the audience looking for a Halloween fright flick. The general public didn't like the first one very much, and I don't see this being a major draw. It will do decently, but nowhere near as well as the first.

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Historical Society Historian
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Missing since: 19 Jul 2007
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I'm more along Droo's line of thought. Sequels only do better if the original lit fires, and while the first movie's success grossly overshadows the games', it didn't become a cultural phenomenon or anything of the sort.

Hell, we barely talk that much about the first movie.

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Historical Society Historian
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?

Missing since: 04 Mar 2007
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I think we'll be plesantly surprised by how it does.

Don't underestimate the draw that 3-D horror has + the additional revenue 3-D brings, something Sinister and Paranormal Activity 4 don't.

The other factor will be reviews... I'd guess it'd score decently overall.


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Just Passing Through
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Missing since: 22 Jun 2010
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Quote:
Sinister and Paranormal Activity 4 will steal most of the audience looking for a Halloween fright flick.


That's something to be considered, and I think it will be the one thing that will hurt the movie the most. I'm one of the folks that want to see PA4 and Sinister, lol, but my priority here is SHR. The cool thing is that here in Brazil, people are TOTALLY hyped for SHR! And I have some considerations about it, and why I think it will make good money over here:

- there's a popular site here called Filmow, that works similarly to IMDB... and there are A LOT of people talking about Revelation, how it looks good and how they wanna see it.

- considering the first film received a (I don't know why, if you mind) X-rating (these movies here don't even reach 400 thousand dollars) and it made more than half a million, and how people seem to love the Silent Hill movie over here, I'm hoping that Revelation will be a major treat, since it has a lower rating

- 3-D horror movies are very popular with audiences here in Brazil, even if it received terrible reviews and comes from an unpopular franchise (The Darkest Hour made 2 million dollars here). For a R-rated film to be considered a good hit here, it has to make at least 4 million dollars, and I think SHR can reach that.

Anyway, I'm really hoping the film will be a modest hit around the world, because REALLY want to see SH4 adapted into the big screen... it could turn into what I believe that would be the most suspenseful and disturbing movie of a possible franchise.

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My Bestsellers Clerk
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?
     
         
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Missing since: 03 Jan 2011
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It made 8 million on it's opening weekend so I lower my prediction to 32 million.

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Just Passing Through
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?

Missing since: 31 Dec 2009
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It'll get to about $15 million domestically and really I have no clue about foreign so I'm just gonna guess $25 million. DVD/Blu Ray sales will likely be solid so it will turn a profit.

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 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?
     
         
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Missing since: 21 Jul 2003
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I doubt it's even going to reach 12 million domestically. Horror movies do virtually all their business opening weekend and Halloween is on Wednesday so there won't be many people at all looking for a scary movie next week. That coupled with the very bad reviews and word of mouth is going to spit this one out of theatres with minimal returns.

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"I dreamt last night I saw you
A single spark explosion negotiating with the dead
By the bright lights in some ICU on my chest you put your head
and said "There you are.
There you are.
There's my heart..."


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Rosewater Park Attendant
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?
     
         
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Missing since: 18 Apr 2009
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I'm hoping for a big influx from yesterday when the results show up due to the European release and Halloween night. I normally couldn't give a flying fig how much money a movie makes, so long as I enjoy it, but I'd really like to see this become a series. After this week though, yeah, not much to go on since it's a horror film. I'm pretty sure a lot of people waited for Halloween night to watch it, there were barely any free seats in the theatre when I saw it last night (UK premier) so the international release should bring in a big chunk. Worldwide it should hopefully make enough to consider it a success.

I dunno about Paranormal Activity 4 but Twitter seems to be full of people saying they're fed up with that series and want to see something more exciting for Halloween, so that's something.

Relatively speaking, it's been about the same as Silent Hill 1 on opening weekend; SH1 cost $50m and made $20m on opening weekend, whilst SH2 cost $20m and made $8m opening weekend, both 40% of their budget. This one has the advantage of Halloween week though.

We also have to remember that this genre particularly can completely outshine box office performance with DVD sales and rental. Several horror films which bombed at the box office have ended up getting sequels due to the DVD doing so well.

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My Bestsellers Clerk
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?
     
         
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Missing since: 03 Jan 2011
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If I could add to what Distant J said for each $1 million it makes in the box office another $80,000 (total approximation) will probably be made in the sales of the back catalogue of Silent Hill especially a spike in sales for Downpour and Book Of Memories and anyone who hasn't seen the first movie will no doubt watch that too if they enjoy SHR.

This applies to most movie series but Silent Hill has more things to make money from.

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Rosewater Park Attendant
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?
     
         
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Missing since: 18 Apr 2009
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This is true, movies function as advertising and keep the series relevant in the public eye.

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Just Passing Through
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?

Missing since: 18 Sep 2010
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i dont think its going to do good at all. half the people who saw the 1st movie didnt like it so there's goes half your audience right there. I was suprised to see it only as #4 on the box office. i cant believe a crappy film like paranormal actiivity beat it and thats been out for a few weeks. wow. thats not good. with halloween over and all the bad reviews on this movie its not gonna get any better at the box office. their only hope for sales is on dvd in the $5 bin. But then again who the hell buys dvd's anymore when he can watch it for free online or pay $1 to get it from redbox..not looking to good i'm afraid.


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Historical Society Historian
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Missing since: 12 Oct 2009
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eddieatemypizza wrote:
i dont think its going to do good at all. half the people who saw the 1st movie didnt like it so there's goes half your audience right there. I was suprised to see it only as #4 on the box office. i cant believe a crappy film like paranormal actiivity beat it and thats been out for a few weeks. wow. thats not good. with halloween over and all the bad reviews on this movie its not gonna get any better at the box office. their only hope for sales is on dvd in the $5 bin. But then again who the hell buys dvd's anymore when he can watch it for free online or pay $1 to get it from redbox..not looking to good i'm afraid.


Considering Paranormal Activity is largely popular compared to Silent Hill, it's no surprise at all that it beat it.

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Just Passing Through
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?

Missing since: 18 Sep 2010
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considering paranormal activity is just people getting bounced from the floor to the ceiling by "spirtis" and is the 4th installment of this crap, yes i do find it suprising..


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Just Passing Through
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?

Missing since: 31 Dec 2009
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The only Paranormal Activity I've seen was the second one. It was boring, not scary, downright stupid at parts, and still infinitely better than Revelations. If 4 is anything like the second film then it probably deserves to beat out Silent Hill.

And even ignoring the quality of the films, the Paranormal Activity franchise is something of a phenomenon. A quickly declining phenomenon to be sure, but it still has more than enough steam to beat out a sequel to a mildly popular horror film from six years ago.

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Historical Society Historian
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?

Missing since: 14 Jan 2004
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Silent Hill Opening week at the box office
1. Argo $12.1 mil
2. Cloud Altlas $9.6 mil
3. Hotel Transylvania $9.4 mil
4. Paranormal Activity 4 $8.5 mil
5. Silent Hill Revelation $8 mil

Yeh.. I don't think its going to make $100 mil+ at the box office... In fact I am suprised it made 8 mil...

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Historical Society Historian
 Post subject: Re: Box Office Predictions ?
     
         
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Missing since: 12 Oct 2009
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http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=silenthill2.htm

Its budget was only $20 million. It doesn't need to make that much to be a success, and considering it made half its budget back since the time it was released, I'd say that's pretty good.

Taking into account that horror flicks do well in DVD sales makes it seem like the film is going to be a modest success, monetarily.

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